As Bitcoin approaches its highly anticipated 2024 halving—slated for April—investors and analysts are closely watching price movements for signs of a potential correction. While the cryptocurrency recently hit a new all-time high of approximately $73,700 on March 13, growing speculation suggests that a pullback could be on the horizon before the halving event.
Despite bullish long-term forecasts, including Bernstein’s projection of a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by mid-2025, historical patterns point to the possibility of short-term volatility. With just five weeks remaining until the halving, market sentiment is divided: will Bitcoin continue its upward trajectory, or is a pre-halving correction imminent?
Signs of a Pre-Halving Bitcoin Correction
Historical data suggests that Bitcoin often experiences a price retracement in the weeks leading up to a halving. Analysts have observed this pattern in past cycles, including a 20% correction before the 2020 halving and a more severe 38% drawdown ahead of the 2016 event.
Pseudonymous market analyst Rekt Capital has highlighted similar warning signs in the current cycle. According to Rekt Capital, recent price action shows increasing evidence of overheating—a common precursor to market corrections. The analyst notes that Bitcoin has already undergone two notable pullbacks in 2024: an 18% decline in January and a 14% dip in early March.
“This year, Bitcoin has experienced a -18% pullback in January and a -14% early March. Therefore it’s possible that a pre-halving retrace, should one occur, would more likely be on the shallower side than on the deeper side.”
This observation implies that if a correction does materialize, it may be less severe than in previous cycles. Rekt Capital also suggests that any retracement could last up to 77 days, though timing and depth remain uncertain.
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How Does This Cycle Compare to Previous Halvings?
One key difference in the 2024 cycle is that Bitcoin has already reached a new all-time high before the halving—an occurrence not seen in prior cycles. Historically, new highs typically emerged after the supply shock from the halving took effect. This shift suggests growing investor confidence and earlier institutional participation.
However, despite this milestone, some data indicates that Bitcoin is still underperforming relative to past growth trajectories. Ecoinometrics pointed out in a March 12 analysis that if Bitcoin were following the same growth curve as the previous two cycles, its price could already be between $100,000 and $300,000.
This gap highlights significant upside potential, especially with the previous all-time high now acting as strong support. Rekt Capital confirmed that Bitcoin successfully retested its former peak of $69,200, which now serves as a critical support level—a bullish signal for continued momentum.
Bullish Outlook: Bitcoin Price Target of $150,000 by Mid-2025
Looking beyond the immediate halving event, Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra have reaffirmed their optimistic forecast, projecting Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by mid-2025. Their outlook is driven primarily by sustained demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Since the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, inflows have surged. Bernstein initially estimated $10 billion in ETF inflows for 2024 and $60 billion for 2025. However, reality has outpaced expectations: over $9.5 billion has already flowed into these products in just 40 trading days.
“At this run rate, Bitcoin ETFs would surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for the rest of 2024.”
Such robust demand reinforces the case for post-halving price appreciation. With reduced supply due to the halving and increasing institutional adoption via ETFs, the supply-demand imbalance could fuel substantial price gains.
Bernstein also recommends exposure to Bitcoin miners, noting their recent underperformance may present a final buying opportunity before the halving reduces block rewards by 50%.
👉 Learn how ETF inflows are reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics in real time.
Core Keywords and Market Themes
The central themes shaping this narrative include Bitcoin halving, BTC price prediction, pre-halving correction, spot Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin market cycle, institutional adoption, Bitcoin support level, and post-halving price surge. These keywords reflect both technical and fundamental drivers influencing investor sentiment.
By integrating these concepts naturally—such as discussing how ETF inflows boost institutional adoption or how historical support levels shape current price action—the analysis remains SEO-optimized without sacrificing readability.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What typically happens to Bitcoin’s price before a halving?
A: Historically, Bitcoin has experienced a pullback or consolidation phase before each halving. In 2016, BTC dropped about 38%, and in 2020, it saw a 20% correction. While not guaranteed, such patterns suggest volatility is common ahead of the event.
Q: Why is the 2024 halving cycle different from previous ones?
A: For the first time, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high before the halving. Additionally, the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs has introduced unprecedented institutional demand, altering traditional supply-demand dynamics.
Q: Can Bitcoin really reach $150,000 after the halving?
A: Bernstein’s $150,000 target is based on strong ETF inflows and reduced supply post-halving. While ambitious, it aligns with historical trends where supply shocks eventually lead to significant price increases.
Q: How do spot Bitcoin ETFs affect price?
A: Spot ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without holding it directly. Increased demand through ETFs leads to sustained buying pressure, supporting higher prices over time.
Q: Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin miners?
A: Bernstein views current miner underperformance as a potential final entry window before the halving cuts block rewards. Miners may benefit significantly from post-halving price rallies despite short-term challenges.
Q: What role does market sentiment play ahead of the halving?
A: Sentiment can drive short-term volatility. Overheating indicators suggest caution, but strong fundamentals—like ETF adoption and network security—support long-term bullishness.
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Final Thoughts
While uncertainty surrounds whether Bitcoin will correct before the April 2024 halving, historical patterns and current market dynamics offer valuable insights. A shallow retracement appears more likely than a deep crash, especially given strong support at $69,200 and accelerating institutional demand.
Long-term forecasts—such as Bernstein’s $150,000 target—are increasingly backed by tangible factors like spot ETF inflows and constrained supply. Whether or not a pre-halving dip occurs, the structural shifts in Bitcoin’s ecosystem suggest that the post-halving period could unlock substantial value.
As always, investors should conduct thorough research and consider risk tolerance before making any financial decisions. Market cycles are predictable only in broad strokes; precise timing remains elusive.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.