Bitcoin (BTC) has once again found itself stuck below the critical $90,000 resistance level, despite multiple attempts to push higher. Since reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24, BTC has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows on the 1-hour chart, signaling weakening momentum. With the first quarter drawing to a close, the chances of testing $90,000 before its end are fading.
But why is Bitcoin struggling to break through this psychological and technical barrier? The answer lies in a combination of market structure, declining liquidity, and a lack of fresh demand. Let’s break down the three primary reasons holding BTC back — and what they mean for the future of this cycle.
1. Heavy Selling Pressure from Short-Term Holders
One of the most significant headwinds for Bitcoin’s price is the persistent selling pressure from short-term holders (STHs) — investors who have owned BTC for less than 155 days.
According to Glassnode’s latest On-Chain Weekly Report, this cycle has been marked by "highly concentrated holding at elevated price levels." In simpler terms, a large portion of Bitcoin was purchased at prices near or above $100,000. As BTC corrected nearly 30% from its all-time high, many of these recent buyers are now sitting on substantial unrealized losses.
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Glassnode data reveals that short-term holders now hold 3.4 million BTC in loss — the largest volume of loss for this cohort since July 2018. This creates a powerful overhang: as prices approach breakeven points (i.e., where buyers can exit without loss), selling pressure intensifies.
This stress is reflected in Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Cumulative On-Chain Score, which measures net accumulation versus distribution. The score has remained below 0.1 since BTC dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000–$97,000 range. A reading below 0.5 indicates distribution (net selling), and below 0.1 signals intense sell-offs — exactly what we’re seeing now.
Until short-term pain subsides or new demand absorbs this supply, upward momentum will remain capped.
2. Shrinking Liquidity and On-Chain Activity
Another major factor limiting Bitcoin’s breakout potential is declining liquidity across both spot and derivatives markets.
On-chain data shows that daily transfer volume has dropped to $5.2 billion, a 47% decline from peak levels seen during Bitcoin’s record-breaking surge. This contraction suggests fewer participants are actively moving or trading BTC — a sign of waning enthusiasm or risk-off behavior.
At the same time, active addresses have fallen by 18%, from 950,000 in November 2024 to just 780,000 today. Fewer active users mean less transactional demand and weaker network engagement — both bearish signals for price growth.
In the futures market, open interest (OI) has dropped 24%, from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion. This indicates a broad deleveraging across exchanges, as traders close positions amid uncertainty.
Additionally, funding rates for perpetual contracts have cooled significantly. These rates reflect trader sentiment in derivatives markets; when they turn neutral or negative, it shows that bullish leverage is unwinding.
With only 2.5% of Bitcoin’s total supply currently in profit, there’s minimal incentive for new long positions. Without strong buying pressure to absorb existing sell orders, any rally faces steep resistance around $90,000.
3. Lack of New Buyer Demand at Higher Price Levels
Perhaps the most telling sign that this leg of the bull run may be stalling is the absence of new demand.
Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) heatmap illustrates this clearly: while there’s a dense cluster of supply acquired between $100,000 and $108,000, there’s a noticeable gap in buyer activity at lower levels. This means few new investors have stepped in to buy the dip — an essential ingredient for sustaining upward momentum.
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In healthy bull markets, corrections attract fresh capital. But here, fear and macro uncertainty appear to be keeping new entrants on the sidelines.
The net capital flow metric further confirms this trend. When the cost basis of short-term holders (1 week to 1 month) falls below that of medium-term holders (1 to 3 months), it signals net capital outflows — exactly what’s happening now.
However, not all hope is lost.
Long-term holders (LTHs), who have held BTC for over 155 days, still control nearly 40% of the network’s invested value. These investors are typically less reactive to short-term volatility and act as a stabilizing force during corrections.
Their continued accumulation suggests confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. Over time, as supply tightens and macro conditions improve, their patience could set the stage for the next phase of growth.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is $90,000 such an important resistance level for Bitcoin?
A: While not a round number like $100,000, $90,000 represents a psychological threshold just below recent all-time highs. It’s also where many leveraged long positions were liquidated during pullbacks, creating dense order book resistance.
Q: Can Bitcoin break $90,000 without new buyers?
A: Sustained突破 requires fresh demand. Without new capital entering the market, any breakout would likely be short-lived and vulnerable to reversal.
Q: What indicators show Bitcoin is under selling pressure?
A: Key signs include low cumulative on-chain scores (<0.1), rising STH unrealized losses (3.4M BTC), declining open interest, and falling active addresses.
Q: Are long-term holders still accumulating Bitcoin?
A: Yes. Despite short-term volatility, LTHs continue to hold and even accumulate BTC, indicating strong conviction in its long-term value.
Q: How does macroeconomic uncertainty affect Bitcoin?
A: Rising interest rate fears, geopolitical tensions, or inflation concerns can reduce risk appetite. Since BTC is often viewed as a risk asset, such conditions delay institutional and retail inflows.
Q: What could trigger the next major move above $90,000?
A: A combination of renewed institutional buying, improved macro sentiment (e.g., rate cuts), and absorption of STH sell pressure could reignite upward momentum.
The Path Forward: Consolidation Before the Next Leg?
Bitcoin’s inability to break $90,000 isn’t necessarily bearish — it may simply reflect a necessary consolidation phase. Markets often retest key levels multiple times before breaking through decisively.
For now, the trifecta of short-term holder distress, shrinking liquidity, and lack of new demand is keeping upward momentum in check.
But history shows that after periods of distribution and capitulation, new accumulation phases begin — often setting up even stronger rallies down the line.
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While 2025 may not see an immediate sprint past $90,000, the structural support from long-term holders suggests that when conditions align, the next move could be powerful.
For traders and investors alike, patience — backed by data — may be the most valuable strategy right now.