XRP has been rangebound between $2.05 and $2.33 for over a month, unable to reclaim the crucial $3 resistance level. Despite lingering investor hopes for a breakout, key onchain and market sentiment indicators suggest weakening momentum. Declining network activity, falling open interest, and bearish technical patterns are combining to keep XRP under pressure. While a long-term consolidation phase could eventually fuel a major rally, the short-term outlook remains cautious.
👉 Discover how market trends and onchain data shape XRP’s next move.
XRP Ledger Sees Sharp Drop in User Activity
One of the most telling signs of fading momentum is the significant slowdown in activity across the XRP Ledger. Onchain metrics reveal a steep decline in both new and active addresses, signaling reduced user engagement.
According to data from Glassnode, daily new addresses on the XRP Ledger peaked at 15,823 in January but have since plummeted to just 3,500. Similarly, daily active addresses — a measure of transactional usage — have dropped from a temporary spike of 577,000 to 34,360. This dramatic contraction suggests that speculative interest and real-world usage are both cooling.
Historically, such declines in network activity correlate with periods of price stagnation or downturns. Fewer transactions mean lower liquidity, reduced trading volume, and diminished buying pressure. When users aren’t moving XRP, confidence tends to wane, and markets often respond with sideways or downward movement.
This loss of onchain momentum raises concerns about whether XRP can sustain even its current price level, let alone break higher. Without a resurgence in adoption or institutional use cases, the network may struggle to attract new capital.
Open Interest Falls 30% Amid Fading Trader Confidence
Another red flag for XRP’s short-term prospects is the sharp decline in open interest (OI) across futures markets. Open interest reflects the total number of outstanding derivative contracts and is a key gauge of market participation and trader conviction.
Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP’s open interest has dropped by 30%, falling from $5.53 billion to $3.89 billion. This contraction indicates that traders are closing positions, likely due to uncertainty or expectations of weaker price action ahead.
This isn’t the first time a drop in open interest has preceded a downturn. Earlier this year, a similar OI decline in January was followed by a 53% correction, sending XRP from a high of $3.40 down to $1.61. The current pattern bears an unsettling resemblance, suggesting that history could repeat if bullish momentum fails to re-emerge.
When open interest falls while price remains flat or declines, it often signals capitulation — traders are giving up on near-term gains and exiting their bets. This lack of conviction makes it harder for any rally to gain traction.
👉 Monitor real-time open interest and trading volume trends for XRP.
Technical Analysis: Resistance Holds, Risks of Breakdown Grow
From a technical perspective, XRP remains trapped beneath a dense cluster of moving averages between $2.22 and $2.40. This zone has acted as strong resistance, preventing any meaningful upward movement. Until bulls can push price above this range, the likelihood of continued consolidation — or even a breakdown — remains high.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also shown signs of weakening. After trending along a support line for weeks, the RSI recently broke below its ascending trendline — a bearish signal that often precedes price drops. With volatility drying up and momentum stalling, traders are bracing for a potential breakout in either direction.
Some analysts have identified a descending triangle pattern forming on the daily chart. This pattern typically resolves with a downside breakout, especially when accompanied by declining volume. If XRP loses its $2.00 support level, technical targets suggest a drop toward $1.20 — a decline of roughly 45% from current levels.
However, not all analysis is bearish. Some market observers argue that this extended consolidation phase could be building the foundation for a powerful rally. Similar multi-month consolidations in 2017 preceded XRP’s surge toward $3, and long-term holders believe a breakout above $3 could unlock further gains — potentially even toward $10 — if momentum returns.
Key Factors Influencing XRP’s Future Direction
Several variables will likely determine whether XRP breaks out or breaks down in the coming weeks:
- Regulatory clarity: Ongoing developments in Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC continue to influence investor sentiment.
- Institutional adoption: Increased use of RippleNet and CBDC projects could reignite demand.
- Market-wide crypto trends: Bitcoin’s price action and broader macroeconomic conditions will impact risk appetite.
- Onchain revival: A rebound in new addresses and transaction volume would signal renewed interest.
Until one or more of these catalysts emerge, XRP may remain locked in its current range.
FAQ: Understanding XRP’s Current Market Phase
Q: Why is XRP stuck below $3?
A: XRP is facing strong resistance between $2.22 and $2.40, where major moving averages converge. Combined with declining network activity and open interest, this has created a low-momentum environment that prevents breakout attempts from gaining traction.
Q: What does falling open interest mean for XRP?
A: A decline in open interest suggests traders are closing positions and losing confidence in near-term price gains. Historically, such drops have preceded significant corrections, as seen in early 2025 when OI fell before a 53% price drop.
Q: Could XRP still go up despite current weakness?
A: Yes. Extended consolidations often precede major rallies. If XRP holds above $2 and sees renewed onchain activity or positive regulatory news, it could spark a breakout toward $3 or higher.
Q: What happens if XRP breaks below $2?
A: A breakdown below $2 could trigger further selling pressure. Technical patterns suggest a potential drop to $1.20 if support fails, though long-term holders may view this as a buying opportunity.
Q: How important is network activity for XRP’s price?
A: Very. The XRP Ledger’s utility drives demand for the token. Low transaction volume and few new addresses indicate weak adoption, which historically correlates with price stagnation or decline.
Q: Is now a good time to buy XRP?
A: It depends on your strategy. Short-term traders may wait for clearer momentum, while long-term investors might see value in the current range, especially if holding above $2.
👉 Analyze live price movements and technical indicators for XRP today.
Conclusion: Caution Prevails Amid Consolidation
XRP remains in a critical phase of consolidation, with bearish indicators outweighing bullish ones in the short term. Declining network activity, shrinking open interest, and persistent technical resistance all point to weakened momentum. While a breakdown below $2 could open the door to $1.20, the extended sideways movement might also be setting up a future breakout.
Investors should monitor key support levels, onchain metrics, and broader market trends closely. For now, patience is essential — the next major move could go either way.
Core Keywords: XRP price, XRP Ledger, open interest, network activity, technical analysis, resistance level, consolidation phase, onchain data