Shiba Inu (SHIB), once a frontrunner in the meme coin rally, has entered a prolonged correction phase following a steep 65% price drop. After peaking in March 2024, SHIB failed to maintain momentum, lagging behind peers like PEPE and FLOKI that reached new highs later in the year. The token's inability to sustain bullish momentum has raised concerns about its long-term viability and future price trajectory.
While a recent bounce from key support levels has sparked cautious optimism, technical indicators and wave analysis suggest that the broader trend remains firmly bearish. Investors are now questioning whether this rebound marks the beginning of a recovery—or merely a temporary relief rally before another leg down in 2025.
Shiba Inu Finds Temporary Support
On the weekly chart, Shiba Inu broke out from a descending resistance trend line in November 2024, briefly climbing to $0.0000334. This move brought SHIB close to the $0.0000340 resistance zone but ultimately resulted in a lower high compared to its March peak—highlighted by a black icon on technical charts.
Following this rejection, the price plunged by 65%, only stabilizing when it reached the confluence of diagonal and horizontal support near $0.0000143. This critical zone not only represents long-term demand but also revalidated the former resistance trend line broken earlier in the year.
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The bounce has formed a bullish weekly candlestick, suggesting short-term stabilization. Currently, SHIB is trading within a defined range between $0.0000143 (support) and $0.0000340 (resistance), forming a horizontal consolidation pattern.
Despite this stabilization, momentum indicators paint a grim picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are both trending downward and have crossed into bearish territory—RSI below 50 and MACD below zero. These signals reinforce the lack of underlying buying pressure.
On the daily timeframe, SHIB broke below an ascending support trend line that had been intact since August 2024. This breakdown is a strong technical signal that the bullish structure has been invalidated. Although a bullish candle appeared on February 3, such patterns often precede retests of broken support—now likely acting as resistance—before further downside unfolds.
Technical Indicators Confirm Bearish Outlook
Both daily and weekly timeframes align in their bearish implications. There are no clear signs of reversal or accumulation at current levels. Volume profiles during the bounce remain muted, indicating limited investor conviction. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics show declining wallet activity and reduced exchange inflows, suggesting fading retail interest.
The absence of bullish divergence in RSI or MACD further diminishes hopes for a sustained recovery. In typical bull markets, these oscillators form higher lows even as prices make lower lows—a sign of strengthening momentum. In SHIB’s case, both price and indicators are moving in tandem to the downside.
This synchronicity supports the view that Shiba Inu is in a corrective or impulsive downtrend rather than consolidating for a breakout.
Elliott Wave Analysis: A Bearish Forecast
From an Elliott Wave perspective, the long-term outlook for Shiba Inu is deeply bearish. The most probable wave count suggests that the entire upward move from late 2023 to March 2024 was merely an A-B-C corrective pattern (marked in white) following the previous decline.
If correct, this implies that SHIB never entered a true bull cycle but instead completed a counter-trend rally before resuming its primary downtrend.
Under this scenario, Shiba Inu has now embarked on a new five-wave bearish impulse (labeled in black), with the current phase likely representing wave three—the strongest and most extended leg down.
However, within this larger downtrend, shorter-term wave structures (shown in yellow) suggest that the initial phase of decline may have concluded. This opens the door for a corrective relief rally—potentially retracing up to 50–61.8% of the prior drop—before selling pressure returns and drives prices lower.
Such rallies are common in bear markets and often trap retail investors who mistake them for trend reversals.
Is Shiba Inu’s Market Cycle Over?
Evidence increasingly points to yes. The impulsive decline since December 2024—triggered by the failure to confirm a higher high—signals that institutional and algorithmic traders have exited positions. With momentum broken and key technical levels compromised, SHIB lacks the structural foundation needed for a new bull run.
Even if the price rebounds toward $0.000025 or $0.000030 in the coming weeks, such moves would likely be part of a bear market rally rather than the start of a new uptrend.
Historically, meme coins thrive on hype cycles fueled by social media virality and celebrity mentions. With SHIB fading from public discourse and no major ecosystem upgrades announced recently, sentiment remains weak.
Furthermore, competing tokens with stronger utility or community engagement—such as PEPE with its growing DeFi integrations or FLOKI with its metaverse initiatives—are capturing investor attention instead.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Can Shiba Inu recover to its all-time high?
A: Based on current technical structure and market dynamics, a return to SHIB’s all-time high appears highly unlikely in this cycle. The broken trend structure and bearish wave count suggest long-term weakness.
Q: What price level would signal a potential reversal?
A: A sustained close above $0.0000340 with strong volume could indicate renewed bullish interest. Until then, resistance remains firm.
Q: Is now a good time to buy SHIB?
A: While the bounce offers short-term trading opportunities, long-term investment carries high risk due to weak momentum and negative sentiment. Any buying should be approached cautiously and with strict risk management.
Q: How low could SHIB go?
A: If the bearish wave count plays out fully, SHIB could eventually test or fall below its 2022 lows near $0.0000078, especially in a broader crypto market downturn.
Q: What factors could revive SHIB’s price?
A: A major catalyst such as exchange listings, staking upgrades, NFT ecosystem expansion, or viral social media momentum could spark renewed interest—but none are currently confirmed.
Q: How does SHIB compare to other meme coins?
A: Unlike PEPE or DOGE, which have seen integration into payments or DeFi platforms, SHIB lacks clear utility advancements. This puts it at a disadvantage in attracting sustained investment.
Final Thoughts
Shiba Inu’s recent bounce provides temporary relief but does little to alter the overarching bearish narrative. Technical indicators, price action, and Elliott Wave analysis all converge on one conclusion: SHIB is likely in a long-term downtrend.
While short-term rallies may occur, they should be viewed as opportunities to exit or hedge rather than accumulate blindly.
Investors should remain vigilant, monitor key support and resistance levels closely, and prioritize risk management over speculation.
The era of passive gains from meme coins like SHIB may be over—for now. In its place is a more discerning market that rewards fundamentals, utility, and timing over hype alone.