As the crypto market gears up for a potential altseason, Avalanche (AVAX) is emerging as a key contender in the spotlight. Trading at $25.48, the asset has broken out of a descending triangle pattern and is now testing critical resistance levels. With technical indicators flashing bullish signals and analysts eyeing a move toward $30 and beyond, investors are asking: Could AVAX reach $37 in the near term?
Let’s dive into the technical setup, on-chain trends, whale activity, and expert insights to assess Avalanche’s price trajectory.
Technical Breakout: AVAX Challenges $26.65 Resistance
On the 4-hour chart, Avalanche has confirmed a bullish breakout from a descending triangle—a pattern typically associated with bearish continuation. However, the recent surge above the trendline signals a potential reversal in momentum.
The immediate resistance sits at **$26.65**, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. A sustained close above this zone could open the door for further upside. Currently, AVAX is trading near $25.48, showing resilience amid broader market consolidation.
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Key momentum indicators support the bullish case:
- The MACD lines are climbing toward the zero mark, with histogram bars expanding positively—indicating growing buying pressure.
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rebounded from oversold territory (below 30) to the neutral midpoint (~50), reflecting renewed buyer interest.
If the current rally continues, the next target lies at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $28.49—a former swing high before the bearish pattern formed. A confirmed move above this level could validate a rounding bottom reversal, a strong bullish formation that often precedes significant price advances.
Should this scenario unfold, analysts project a potential extension toward $37.82, representing over a 45% upside from current levels.
On the downside, critical support zones remain at $24** and **$22.60. A drop below these levels could invalidate the current bullish structure and trigger renewed selling pressure.
Analyst Outlook: Can AVAX Break $30?
Crypto analyst Ted Pillows has been closely monitoring AVAX’s price action and recently highlighted the formation of a similar descending triangle. With three consecutive green candles holding above a key support zone, he views this as a sign of underlying strength.
"Avalanche is still holding its support zone. Buyers are stepping in—which is a good sign. All I need now is a 4H close above $26 and AVAX will run hard 🚀"
This sentiment echoes across multiple technical analysts who believe that a confirmed close above $26** could ignite a momentum-driven rally. Pillows’ initial price target stands at **$30, but he acknowledges that stronger buying could push prices even higher.
The psychological importance of the $30 level cannot be overstated—it represents not only a round number but also a previous consolidation zone that could act as both resistance and future support upon breakout.
With macro conditions improving—such as potential rate cuts and increased institutional inflows—altcoins like AVAX may benefit from broader market tailwinds.
Whale Movements: $780 Million in Sell-Offs Raise Concerns
Despite positive technical signals, on-chain data reveals caution among large holders. According to IntoTheBlock, investors holding over $10 million worth of AVAX** have offloaded approximately **$780 million in tokens since early February.
This significant reduction has brought large-cap holdings down from $2.29 billion to $1.51 billion, marking a notable shift in sentiment among whales.
Meanwhile, mid-tier holders ($1M–$10M) have seen only minor reductions—from $559 million to $557 million—suggesting that smaller institutions or sophisticated retail investors remain relatively neutral.
Overall, total AVAX holdings across major wallets have declined from $3.62 billion to $2.66 billion, reflecting bearish positioning at the top end of the market.
While whale sell-offs don’t always precede price drops—many whales take profits during rallies—they do introduce overhead supply that could dampen upward momentum if selling continues.
On-Chain Data: Bullish Shift in Profit-Taking Zones
Despite whale outflows, on-chain metrics reveal encouraging signs for retail and short-term traders.
The Global In/Out of Money (IOM) indicator from IntoTheBlock shows that AVAX has entered a critical transition phase:
- The At-The-Money zone ($23.41–$25.78), which holds 15.31 million AVAX tokens, is now turning profitable for most holders.
- As buyers move into profit, this zone could flip from resistance to support, reinforcing upward momentum.
However, a strong supply zone exists between $27.91 and $35.21, where an estimated 6.2 million AVAX tokens were acquired—mostly during previous rallies. This area represents significant selling pressure if prices approach it without strong demand.
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Still, if AVAX sustains above $28 and gains volume on rallies, it could absorb this supply and push toward **$35.21, with longer-term potential reaching $37+**.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the immediate resistance level for AVAX?
The immediate resistance for Avalanche lies at $26.65**, followed by **$28.49. A confirmed breakout above these levels could trigger further gains toward $30–$35.
Is Avalanche showing signs of a bullish reversal?
Yes. The breakout from a descending triangle, combined with improving RSI and MACD readings, suggests a potential bullish reversal is underway—especially if price holds above $24.
Why are whales selling AVAX?
Large holders have sold approximately $780 million worth of AVAX since February, likely taking profits after price recovery. While this adds selling pressure, it doesn’t necessarily indicate long-term bearishness.
What is the significance of the At-The-Money zone?
The At-The-Money zone ($23.41–$25.78) contains over 15 million AVAX tokens. As price moves above this range, holders turn profitable, increasing the likelihood of bullish continuation.
Can AVAX reach $37?
Reaching **$37** is possible if AVAX clears resistance at $28.49 and absorbs supply near $35.21. Strong market sentiment and volume support would be required for such a move.
What happens if AVAX drops below $24?
A breakdown below $24** could invalidate the current bullish structure and expose support at **$22.60 or lower. Traders should monitor this level closely for signs of weakness.
Final Thoughts: A High-Stakes Test Ahead
Avalanche stands at a pivotal juncture. Technically, the charts suggest a bullish reversal is forming—with momentum building toward $30 and possibly $37. On-chain data supports this view, as more holders enter profitable territory.
However, whale sell-offs totaling $780 million serve as a cautionary signal. These large outflows create overhead supply that could cap gains unless matched by strong institutional or retail demand.
For traders and investors alike, the coming weeks will be decisive:
- A sustained close above $26 could confirm breakout momentum.
- A push past $28.49 may unlock larger buying interest.
- Failure to hold $24 risks reigniting bearish sentiment.
With altseason speculation growing and macroeconomic conditions evolving favorably, AVAX remains one of the most watched altcoins on the market.
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